stock valuation scenario builder
Build transparent bull, base, and bear stock valuation scenarios using evidence-based sensitivity analysis.
$5
Works with the AI tools you already use
Claude Code
Cursor
Codex CLI
GitHub Copilot
Gemini CLI+20 moreClaude CodeCursorCodex CLIGitHub CopilotGemini CLI
OpenClaw
Manus
Grok+17 agentsstock valuation scenario builder
Example session with this skill installed
Build a valuation for a SaaS company with $10M ARR, 80% margins, and 20% growth. I'm assuming a 10% discount rate and 5x terminal multiple. What are the bull and bear cases?
- Read your context and instructions
- Compiled the stock valuation scenario
I will build a valuation scenario for this SaaS company to determine how sensitivity to growth and multiples impacts the final valuation range.
Valuation Scenario Analysis
1. Decision Snapshot
The current evidence supports a viable base case valuation, but the terminal multiple is a high-impact hypothesis. The valuation is highly sensitive to growth persistence beyond the current 20% rate.
2. Inputs & Assumptions
| Item | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) | $10,000,000 | Verified (User) |
| Gross Margin | 80% | Supported |
| Revenue Growth | 20% | Hypothesis |
| Discount Rate | 10% | Hypothesis |
| Terminal Multiple | 5.0x | Hypothesis |
| Share Count | Unknown | Unknown |
3. Analysis
| Dimension | Score | Evidence | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 3 | 20% is solid but unverified for the long term. | Primary driver of terminal value. |
| Margin Trajectory | 4 | 80% is top-tier for SaaS models. | High cash conversion potential. |
| Terminal Assumptions | 2 | 5x multiple is a round-number estimate. | Small changes swing the result by 30%+. |
4. Key Risks / Gaps
- Growth Decay: If growth slows to 10% in Year 2, the valuation drops significantly.
- Multiple Compression: 5x ARR assumes a stable interest rate environment.
Missing Capital Structure: Net debt and share count are required to move from Enterprise Value to Price Per Share.
5. Recommended Next Move
Primary Action: Conduct a cohort analysis to verify if the 20% growth is driven by new logos or expansion, as this changes the margin sustainability.
Supporting Actions:
- Benchmark the 5x terminal multiple against recent M&A in the same vertical.
- Model a "Bear Case" where growth decays by 5% annually.
6. Validation Plan
| Question | Evidence Needed | Cheapest Test | Pass Signal | Fail Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Is growth sustainable? | LTM Net Retention | Review churn logs | NRR > 105% | NRR < 90% |
7. What Would Change the Conclusion
If the verified Net Retention Rate is below 90%, the growth hypothesis fails, and the recommendation moves from "Proceed to Test" to "Research/Revise" due to structurally negative unit economics.
Next steps
- Provide the current net debt and total outstanding shares to calculate per-share value.
- Define the churn rate to refine the margin trajectory.
- Compare these results against a 8% and 12% discount rate to see the valuation floor.
Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.
What you get
About this skill
The problem
Valuation models often suffer from false precision and hidden assumptions. Most tools provide a single price target without showing which variables actually drive the value or where the data gaps exist.
What it does
- Builds bull, base, and bear valuation scenarios from user-supplied financial inputs.
- Generates an evidence ledger that classifies data as Verified, Supported, Hypothesis, or Unknown.
- Performs sensitivity analysis on revenue growth, margins, and discount rates to identify value drivers.
- Scores investment dimensions from 0 to 5 based on available evidence and analytical anchors.
- Provides a concrete validation plan with pass/fail signals for testing high-impact uncertainties.
Why this beats prompting it yourself
This skill enforces a rigorous evidence-based framework that prevents the AI from inventing market data or hallucinating certainty. It bypasses generic summaries by mandating a structured output contract that includes a decision snapshot, arithmetic validation, and specific next-move recommendations based on risk tiers.
Use cases
- Creating a multi-scenario DCF model for a pre-revenue startup or mature equity.
- Testing the sensitivity of a buy-side thesis against changes in terminal growth assumptions.
- Conducting due diligence by mapping out what evidence is needed to resolve major financial unknowns.
Known limitations
Does not provide personalized investment advice or trade instructions. Requires manual input of share counts and debt levels if live data tools are not connected.
How to install
Works the same in every agent - Claude, Cursor, Codex, Copilot and 20+ more.
- 1
Download the ZIP
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- 2
Unzip into your skills folder
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- 3
Ask your agent to use it
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