stock thesis builder pro

    1

    Convert scattered investment notes into professional, falsifiable stock theses with catalysts and risk mapping.

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    stock thesis builder pro

    Example session with this skill installed

    Build a thesis for MercadoLibre (MELI). I think they are winning logistics in Brazil, but people worry about Shopee. 2-year horizon. High growth but high valuation.

    • Read your context and instructions
    • Compiled the stock thesis builder

    I have structured your notes on MercadoLibre into a falsifiable investment thesis focused on logistics dominance versus regional competition.

    MercadoLibre (MELI) Investment Thesis

    Thesis Statement: MercadoLibre will maintain dominant e-commerce market share in Brazil by leveraging its proprietary logistics network (Mercado Envios) to lower shipping costs and delivery times, outlasting subsidized competition from regional entrants.

    Evidence Tree

    PillarSupporting EvidenceKey Assumptions
    Logistics Lead~90% of shipments handled via managed network; same-day delivery in major hubs.Network density maintains unit economic advantage over third-party carriers.
    Credit EcosystemMercado Pago TPV growth >50%; high stickiness between fintech and retail.Credit loss provisions remain stable during Brazilian interest rate cycles.
    Competitive MoatLocal regulatory expertise and established physical fulfillment footprint.Competitors (Shopee) prioritize profitability over aggressive market share subsidies.

    Variant View
    The market treats Shopee's entry as a terminal threat to MELI's margins. However, the "variant view" is that MELI’s fulfillment speed creates a convenience premium that price-sensitive entrants cannot bridge without massive, unsustainable capital expenditure.

    Catalysts

    • Logistics Margin Expansion: Improvement in fulfillment cost per package as density increases (6-12 months).
    • Competitor Retreat: Evidence of Shopee or Amazon scaling back aggressive shipping subsidies (12-18 months).
    • Ad Revenue Growth: Higher contribution from Mercado Ads providing high-margin offset to shipping costs.

    Invalidation Conditions

    • Logistics Parity: A competitor achieves comparable delivery speeds at a significantly lower customer cost.
    • Credit Default Spike: NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) in Mercado Credito exceed 15% of the portfolio.
    • Regulation: New cross-border tax laws in Brazil that remove the advantage of local fulfillment centers.

    Monitoring Checklist

    • Track quarterly take-rate trends in Brazil retail.
    • Monitor Mercado Pago credit quality and provision levels.
    • Watch for fulfillment center expansion announcements from regional competitors.

    Next steps

    1. Verify latest NPL ratios for Mercado Credito to validate the credit pillar.
    2. Compare delivery time guarantees in Tier 2 Brazilian cities vs Shopee.
    3. Update thesis if Selic rate changes significantly impact consumer spending.

    Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.

    What you get

    Structure messy research into a professional investment memo.Define specific invalidation points to prevent emotional holding.Identify the 'Variant View' to see where you differ from consensus.Map out time-sensitive catalysts and their potential impact.

    About this skill

    Investment ideas often fail because they lack structure, rely on confirmation bias, or ignore the conditions that would prove them wrong. This skill forces discipline on your research by converting scattered company notes into a falsifiable, professional investment thesis. It moves beyond simple "buy" arguments to map out the specific evidence, market expectations, and catalysts required for a position to succeed.

    What it does

    • Evidence Mapping organizes raw notes into a structured tree of facts versus assumptions.
    • Variant View Analysis identifies what the market currently expects and where your view differs.
    • Catalyst Identification lists specific events that could move the stock, including timing uncertainty.
    • Invalidation Logic defines concrete conditions that, if met, mean the thesis is wrong and the trade is over.
    • Monitoring Framework generates a checklist of metrics and news events to track the thesis in real-time.

    How it works

    1. Provide a company name and your rough notes, observations, or bull case arguments.
    2. The skill separates verified facts from your assumptions and identifies missing critical data.
    3. It builds a variant view to ensure your thesis isn't just "priced in" consensus.
    4. It delivers a structured thesis document focusing on falsifiability and risk management.

    Frameworks & tools

    This tool uses fundamental analysis principles and professional hedge fund research standards. It is platform-agnostic and works with any stock, sector, or time horizon.

    Why this beats prompting it yourself

    Generic prompts often produce "bull case" marketing copy that ignores risk. This skill enforces professional standards like the "Variant View" and "Invalidation Conditions," ensuring you don't just confirm your own biases.

    Use cases

    • Convert a chaotic list of earnings call notes into a structured investment memo.
    • Stress-test a "gut feeling" about a sector by defining what would prove you wrong.
    • Prepare for an investment committee or personal portfolio review with a standardized format.
    • Identify the specific catalysts that need to trigger for your valuation to be realized.

    Known limitations

    This skill does not provide price targets or personalized financial advice. It cannot verify live market prices or real-time fundamental data.

    How to install

    Works the same in every agent - Claude, Cursor, Codex, Copilot and 20+ more.

    ~30 seconds
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      Download the ZIP

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      Unzip into your skills folder

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    3. 3

      Ask your agent to use it

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