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Annual Operating Plan Builder
Turn strategic priorities, prior-year results, and board guidance into a reconciled annual operating plan with owners, scorecards, and contingencies.
$9
Annual Operating Plan Builder
Example session with this skill installed
Build our annual operating plan for FY2027 (January-December 2027). It goes to the board for approval on 10 December 2026; CFO Nora Lindgren owns the process. Corporate level with brand detail.
Company: Copperline Hospitality Group, multi-brand restaurant operator, 118 company-owned restaurants.
Approved 2026-2028 strategic priorities:
- Grow Harvest Table (fast casual) unit count.
- Off-premise and catering to 25% of sales by 2028.
- Labor productivity through kitchen technology.
- Fix or exit underperforming Ember & Oak (full-service) units.
FY2026 forecast vs plan:
- Revenue $268M vs plan $281M (-$13M). Reasons: Ember & Oak traffic down 6%; 4 Harvest Table openings slipped into 2027.
- By brand:
- Harvest Table $142M (64 units)
- Ember & Oak $96M (32 units)
- Little Saffron (quick service) $30M (22 units)
- By channel: dine-in $193M, off-premise $56M, catering $19M.
- Restaurant-level margin 15.8%. EBITDA $23.6M (8.8%).
- Hourly labor 32.6% of sales.
Board guidance (August 2026 meeting):
- Revenue growth 7-10%.
- EBITDA margin 9.0-9.8%.
- Capex $18-22M.
- Net new units 8-10.
- Corporate headcount flat (currently 142).
- Hourly labor at or below 31.5% of sales.
Capital requests
- 10 new Harvest Table units at $1.45M each: $14.5M (includes the 4 slipped openings).
- 6 Ember & Oak remodels at $0.9M each: $5.4M.
- Kitchen display and automation rollout: $3.1M.
- New POS and loyalty platform: $2.4M.
Assumptions
- Food cost inflation 3.5% (purchasing, based on signed supplier contracts).
- Menu price increase 3% from 1 February (CMO proposal).
- Minimum wage increases in two of our states effective 1 January 2027, +$1.10 an hour (payroll provider bulletin).
Brand leaders
- Harvest Table: Jamal Whitaker, President.
- Little Saffron: Corinne Abara, President.
- Ember & Oak: President role vacant since August; the COO is covering.
- Off-premise and catering: VP Off-Premise Dana Kowalczyk.
- Kitchen technology: CIO Felix Amador.
Open question for the board: whether to close 3-5 of the weakest Ember & Oak units in 2027. No decision yet.
I need the full AOP: financial plan with bridges, capital plan, people plan, quarterly scorecard and downside scenarios.
- Read your context and instructions
- Compiled the annual operating plan
- Generated the data export
I've drafted the FY2027 AOP, but it doesn't set targets yet. It reconciles your baseline, works out what the board's guidance requires, and shows the bridges, but the plan figures (revenue, margins, EBITDA) are marked TO BE SET. Every number in it is either one you gave me or a calculation from those, with the working shown. A separate script recomputes every figure and checks that the totals add up; it ran cleanly. Where I'd need a guess (opening dates, traffic by brand, food spend, labor hours in the two states, unit P&Ls, probabilities), the plan says TO BE SET or NOT PROVIDED rather than inventing it.
Issues to resolve before the board pack
Capex is over guidance. The four requests total $25.4M against the $18–22M range, $3.4M over the top. There's also no maintenance capex for the 118 existing restaurants. I've laid out five options (A–E) and proposed a sixth, "C+": $20.0M firm, plus up to $1.8M for two Ember & Oak remodels released only after the closure decision. The maximum is $21.8M.
2.
Closures break the net-new-unit guidance. 10 openings minus 3–5 closures leaves 5–7 net new units, below the 8–10 floor. Any closure beyond 2 units breaks it, unless the board excludes closures from the measure.
3.
The off-premise target is already met. Off-premise plus catering is $75M, or 28.0% of FY2026 sales, against a 25%-by-2028 goal. Off-premise alone is 20.9%. Priority 2 needs its definition settled before it can have a year-one target.
4.
Remodels and closures overlap. Six remodels plus 3–5 closures touch 9–11 of the 32 Ember & Oak units, and the closure list doesn't exist yet. Remodeling a unit that then closes strands $0.9M, so the closure decision should come first.
5.
Cash is tight. At the bottom of the EBITDA guidance ($25.8M), funding every request leaves about $0.4M before interest, tax and closure costs. At FY2026 EBITDA it's −$1.8M.
6.
Most of the labor gap comes from price. The 3% increase alone takes hourly labor from 32.6% to about 31.73%, if hours and wage rates stay flat. About 23 bps more, plus whatever the minimum-wage rise costs, has to come from kitchen technology and scheduling.
7.
What a plan inside guidance needs. Price adds about $7.4M. Traffic, new units and mix, net of any closures, must add $11.4M–$19.4M more to land in the $286.8M–$294.8M window.
8.
Little Saffron has no strategic priority. I've treated it as a base business; you may want to confirm that's intended.
9.
Ownership gaps. The Ember & Oak turnaround depends on the COO covering a vacant president role. POS/loyalty, purchasing and HR have no named owner, and the COO, CMO and CEO weren't named.
Decisions for you and Nora
- Which capital option to take.
- Whether closures count against net-new-unit guidance.
- How the off-premise target is defined.
- Whether the 3% price increase applies uniformly, given Ember & Oak's traffic decline.
- Whether the closure decision goes to the 10 December board or to Q1 2027.
The full list of 21 open questions is at the end of the plan, grouped by the date each is needed.
The calendar dates, variance thresholds and initiative milestones are my proposals for Nora to confirm. Scenario probabilities are left blank because none were provided. Finance needs to sign off the financials, and any closure or workforce action needs HR and employment-counsel review before it goes to the board.
Files
All in your working folder
| File | Last modified | What it contains |
|---|---|---|
Copperline_FY2027_AOP_DRAFT.md | 2026-10-01 22:20 | The full draft plan in 12 sections |
aop_fy2027_calcs.py | 2026-10-01 22:17 | Recomputes every figure and checks the totals |
aop_fy2027_calcs_output.txt | 2026-10-01 22:20 | Output of the latest run, which matches the draft |
These files sit in a temporary scratch folder, so copy them somewhere permanent. I can also convert the plan to Word or build a spreadsheet model once the missing inputs come in.
The file it wrote: Copperline_FY2027_AOP_DRAFT.md
Copperline Hospitality Group: FY2027 Annual Operating Plan
Plan year: January–December 2027 ·
Level: Corporate, with brand detail ·
Process owner: Nora Lindgren, CFO ·
Approval: Board of Directors, 10 December 2026
DRAFT v0.1 (prepared 1 October 2026). This draft sets out the structure, reconciles the baseline, does the guidance arithmetic and states the trade-offs. It does
not set targets. Every figure is either a supplied input or a calculation from supplied inputs; the calculation is shown here and repeated in aop_fy2027_calcs.py, which re-runs every number and checks the totals. Anything that needs a leadership decision or data we don't have yet is marked
TO BE SET,
NOT PROVIDED,
OWNER NOT PROVIDED or
PROPOSED. Finance must sign off the financials before the board pre-read goes out.
Executive Summary
FY2026 is forecast to close at
$268.0M revenue, 4.6% below the $281.0M plan. The two reasons are Ember & Oak traffic (down 6%) and four Harvest Table openings that slipped into 2027. EBITDA is forecast at $23.6M (8.8%), which is
below the board's FY2027 margin floor of 9.0%. Hourly labor is 32.6%,
110 bps above the 31.5% ceiling.
| Metric | Prior Year (FY2026F) | Plan (FY2027) | Change | vs. Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $268.0M | TO BE SET. The guidance window is $286.8M–$294.8M | Needs +$18.8M to +$26.8M | 7–10% growth. Price supplies about $7.4M of it (see bridge) |
| Restaurant-level margin | 15.8% ($42.3M) | TO BE SET | — | No board guidance. If below-RLM costs stay flat in dollars, the EBITDA range needs 15.45%–16.25% at midpoint revenue |
| EBITDA | $23.6M | TO BE SET. The window is $25.8M–$28.9M | Needs +$2.2M to +$5.3M | Window = 9.0–9.8% applied to the 7–10% revenue range |
| EBITDA margin | 8.8% | TO BE SET | Needs +19 to +99 bps | 9.0–9.8%. FY2026 is below the range |
| Hourly labor % of sales | 32.6% | ≤31.5% (board ceiling, adopted as plan) | −110 bps | At the ceiling. The minimum-wage headwind can't be sized yet (hours NOT PROVIDED) |
| Capex | FY2026 actual NOT PROVIDED | Requests total $25.4M | — | ⚠ ABOVE RANGE: $3.4M over the $22M ceiling and $5.4M over the $20M midpoint. No maintenance capex has been requested |
| Restaurant openings | 4 FY2026 openings slipped | 10 Harvest Table | — | Gross openings fall within 8–10 |
| Net new units | NOT PROVIDED | 10 with no closures / 7 with 3 closures / 5 with 5 closures | — | ⚠ Any closure above 2 units puts net new below the 8-unit floor, unless the board excludes closures from the measure |
| Year-end units | 118 | 128 / 125 / 123 | +10 / +7 / +5 | — |
| Corporate headcount | 142 | 142 | 0 | Flat: within guidance |
| Off-premise + catering, % of sales | 28.0% ($75.0M) | TO BE SET | — | No board guidance. ⚠ Already above the 25%-by-2028 strategic target. The definition needs confirming (see Open Questions) |
Four decisions the board pack has to settle (owners and options are in the sections below):
Bring capital inside $18–22M. The requests total $25.4M. Option C+ (PROPOSED) approves $20.0M firm, plus up to $1.8M for two Ember & Oak remodels released only once the closure decision is made. The maximum is $21.8M (Capital Plan).
2. Ember & Oak closures (3–5 units): decide, and decide how they count against net-new guidance. The decision also determines which units get the six remodels. Remodeling a unit that later closes strands $0.9M.
3.
Define the off-premise and catering target. Combined, the channels are already at 28.0%. Off-premise alone is 20.9%. Until the definition is settled, Priority 2 has no year-one target that means anything.
4.
Price by brand. The proposed 3% increase from 1 February applies to Ember & Oak too, which lost 6% of its traffic in FY2026. The CMO and brand leaders need to confirm whether the increase is uniform.
What a plan inside guidance requires (arithmetic, not a target): the price increase is worth about
$7.4M before any traffic response. Volume, new units and mix, net of any closures, must therefore add
$11.4M–$19.4M (4.25%–7.25% of the FY2026 base). On labor, price leverage alone brings hourly labor to about 31.73% if hours and wage rates stay flat. Kitchen technology and scheduling must deliver the remaining
~23 bps, plus enough to absorb the minimum-wage increase and new-unit ramp-up.
Planning Framework and Calendar
Planning hierarchy
2026–2028 STRATEGIC PRIORITIES (approved)
1 Grow Harvest Table units 2 Off-premise & catering to 25% 3 Kitchen-tech labor productivity 4 Fix or exit Ember & Oak
↓
FY2027 ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN (this document): corporate, with brand detail
Financial · Operational (brands + functions) · Investment (capital) · People
↓
QUARTERLY OBJECTIVES AND SCORECARD (owner per metric; reviewed by the board each quarter)
↓
MONTHLY / WEEKLY EXECUTION (monthly operating review; weekly traffic, labor and opening trackers)
What must be true at year-end FY2027 for the strategy to be on track (PROPOSED for executive confirmation):
- Harvest Table at 74 units, with the FY2028 opening pipeline secured (pipeline target TO BE SET).
- The off-premise and catering target is defined, and FY2027 performance is tracking the 2028 goal.
- Hourly labor is at or below 31.5%, and kitchen technology is installed on the schedule set by the CIO.
- The fix-or-exit decision on Ember & Oak is made and carried out, and a permanent Ember & Oak President is in post.
Calendar (PROPOSED: CFO to confirm)
Today is Thursday 1 October 2026. The board meets on Thursday 10 December, ten weeks from now.
| Phase | Dates (2026) | Activities | Deliverable | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Direction | Thu 1 Oct – Fri 9 Oct | Issue the planning-assumptions memo (the Assumptions Register below). Confirm the guidance windows, the capex envelope and the off-premise definition. Start the Ember & Oak unit-level review | Assumptions memo | CFO |
| 2. Development | Mon 12 Oct – Fri 30 Oct | Brand plans (Harvest Table, Little Saffron, Ember & Oak). Off-premise and catering plan. Business cases for kitchen technology and POS/loyalty. Dated opening schedule. Unit P&Ls for Ember & Oak closure candidates | Draft brand and functional plans | Brand presidents, COO, VP Off-Premise, CIO |
| 3. Integration | Mon 2 Nov – Fri 13 Nov | FP&A consolidates. First pass against guidance. Capital ranking. Labor bridge by brand | Integrated draft vs. guidance | CFO |
| 4. Iteration | Mon 16 Nov – Wed 25 Nov | Trade-offs. Ember & Oak closure recommendation. Final targets set by accountable executives (Thanksgiving falls on Thu 26 Nov) | Final draft | CFO + executive team |
| 5. Approval | Mon 30 Nov – Thu 10 Dec | Finance sign-off and executive sign-off by Wed 2 Dec. Board pre-read sent Thu 3 Dec. Board approval Thu 10 Dec | Approved AOP | CFO; CEO (name NOT PROVIDED) |
| 6. Launch | Fri 11 Dec – Thu 31 Dec | Cascade to brands and restaurants. Load minimum-wage rates into payroll for 1 January. Prepare menus and POS prices for 1 February | Launched plan | CFO, brand presidents |
Calendar risk: the minimum-wage change (1 January) and the price increase (1 February) need payroll and menu work in December. That work starts before the plan is approved. Treat both as base-business actions that go ahead regardless of the approval outcome. The pricing decision, though, still has to be made (Decision 4).
Component owners
| Component | Owner |
|---|---|
| Financial plan, capital plan, process | Nora Lindgren, CFO |
| Harvest Table brand plan and opening program | Jamal Whitaker, President, Harvest Table |
| Little Saffron brand plan | Corinne Abara, President, Little Saffron |
| Ember & Oak brand plan and fix-or-exit review | COO (interim cover; name NOT PROVIDED). The President role has been vacant since August |
| Off-premise and catering plan | Dana Kowalczyk, VP Off-Premise |
| Kitchen technology plan | Felix Amador, CIO |
| POS and loyalty platform | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (confirm whether the CIO owns it) |
| Pricing | CMO (name NOT PROVIDED) |
| Food cost and purchasing | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| People plan | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (no HR leader named) |
| New-unit development and construction | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (Jamal Whitaker owns the opening outcomes) |
Governance (PROPOSED)
Monthly operating review: chaired by the CFO, in the first week of each month. Covers the flash P&L by brand, the labor percentage, the opening tracker, Ember & Oak traffic and initiative status.
- Quarterly business review: brand presidents and functional owners. Deep dives, reallocation and reforecast.
- Board: a quarterly report against plan, plus approval for Tier 3 contingency actions (see Contingency Scenarios).
- Mid-year reforecast: in July, after Q2 closes. Any material change goes to the board.
Strategic Context and Annual Objectives
Where FY2026 leaves us
| Brand | FY2026F revenue | Share | Units | Revenue per unit* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest Table (fast casual) | $142.0M | 53.0% | 64 | $2.22M |
| Ember & Oak (full service) | $96.0M | 35.8% | 32 | $3.00M |
| Little Saffron (quick service) | $30.0M | 11.2% | 22 | $1.36M |
| Total | $268.0M | 100% | 118 | $2.27M |
* FY2026F revenue ÷ units at FY2026 year-end. If any units opened partway through the year, this understates the true run-rate. FP&A should replace it with average-unit-volume (AUV) figures for comparable units.
| Channel | FY2026F | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Dine-in | $193.0M | 72.0% |
| Off-premise | $56.0M | 20.9% |
| Catering | $19.0M | 7.1% |
| Total | $268.0M | 100% |
Priority-by-priority translation
Priority 1: Grow Harvest Table unit count. Executive sponsor: Jamal Whitaker.
- Intent: Harvest Table is already 53% of revenue. Growing its footprint shifts the portfolio toward the brand the strategy is betting on.
- Year-one objective: open all 10 units, including the 4 slipped from FY2026, and secure the FY2028 pipeline.
- Key results: lagging: units opened (10); Harvest Table revenue (TO BE SET); new-unit sales against pro forma (pro forma NOT PROVIDED). Leading (PROPOSED): leases signed, permits issued, construction starts and general managers in seat before opening. Quarterly targets TO BE SET once the dated schedule exists.
- Initiatives: the 10-unit opening program ($14.5M capex) and the FY2028 pipeline.
- Risk: four openings slipped in FY2026, so this plan cannot carry undated openings. Each unit-quarter of slip costs about $0.55M of revenue ($2.22M ÷ 4).
Priority 2: Off-premise and catering to 25% of sales by 2028. Executive sponsor: Dana Kowalczyk.
- Intent: grow the channels that use capacity without needing more seats.
- ⚠ Definition gap: the two channels together are already
28.0% of FY2026 sales ($75.0M ÷ $268.0M). Either the target is defined differently (off-premise alone is 20.9%; a narrower or brand-specific definition is possible), or the 2028 target has already been met and needs rebasing.
The year-one objective is TO BE SET until this is resolved.
- Key results (PROPOSED metrics, targets TO BE SET): off-premise revenue and share by brand; catering revenue; share of orders that are digital; loyalty members once POS/loyalty goes live.
- Initiatives: the off-premise and catering growth plan (opex TO BE SET); the POS and loyalty platform ($2.4M capex).
Priority 3: Labor productivity through kitchen technology. Executive sponsor: Felix Amador. The hourly-labor metric is owned by the COO (name NOT PROVIDED).
- Intent: structurally lower the labor needed per dollar of sales, so that wage inflation doesn't erode margin.
- Year-one objective: hourly labor at or below 31.5% (board ceiling); kitchen display and automation rolled out on the schedule the CIO sets.
- Key results: lagging: hourly labor % by brand. Leading (PROPOSED): kitchen-display units installed; labor hours per $1,000 of sales; schedule adherence; ticket times.
- Initiatives: the kitchen display and automation rollout ($3.1M capex); a labor-scheduling program (opex TO BE SET).
- The arithmetic: see the labor bridge in the Financial Plan. Price leverage gives about 87 bps. That leaves about 23 bps, plus enough to absorb minimum wage, merit increases and new-unit ramp-up, to come from productivity.
Priority 4: Fix or exit underperforming Ember & Oak units. Executive sponsor: COO (interim;
name NOT PROVIDED). The President role is vacant.
- Intent: stop the drag from full service. Traffic fell 6% in FY2026, and Ember & Oak was one of the two causes of the $13M miss.
- Year-one objectives: (1) a board decision on closing 3–5 of the weakest units; (2) a traffic-recovery plan for the units kept; (3) remodels only at units that are kept; (4) a permanent President appointed.
- Key results: Ember & Oak traffic and comparable sales (targets TO BE SET); a unit-level margin ranking of all 32 units (data NOT PROVIDED); decision date (PROPOSED: the 10 December board or the first board meeting of Q1 2027).
- Initiatives: unit portfolio review and decision; fix plan; remodels ($5.4M capex, conditional on the decision); President hire.
Dependencies, conflicts and sequencing
| Issue | Between | What it means | Proposed handling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital exceeds guidance | All four priorities | Requests are $25.4M against an $18–22M range | Rank the requests and approve with conditions (Capital Plan) |
| Remodels vs. closures | Priority 4 internal | 6 remodels plus 3–5 closures touch 9–11 of the 32 Ember & Oak units, and the closure list doesn't exist yet | Make the closure decision before naming the remodel list |
| Closures vs. net-new-unit guidance | Priority 4 vs. board guidance | 10 openings minus 3–5 closures gives 5–7 net, below 8–10 | Board to decide whether closures count in the net-new measure |
| Price vs. traffic | Base business vs. Priority 4 | A 3% increase in a brand already losing 6% of its traffic | CMO and brand leaders to set price by brand |
| Two restaurant-system rollouts at once | Priorities 2 and 3 | Kitchen display and POS/loyalty land in the same 118–128 restaurants. The CIO leads kitchen technology; POS ownership is unconfirmed | CIO to set the sequence of both rollouts and the per-restaurant change load |
| Flat corporate headcount vs. more work | All priorities | 10 openings, two technology rollouts, closures and an executive hire, all with 142 corporate staff | Reallocate roles; see People Plan |
| Little Saffron isn't covered by any priority | Portfolio | $30M (11.2%) and 22 units with no strategic objective of their own | Corinne Abara's plan runs as a base-business plan contributing to Priorities 2 and 3. Executives to confirm this is intended |
Financial Plan
Revenue by brand
| Brand | FY2026F | Price (3% from 1 Feb, 11 months) | Traffic / volume | New units | Closures | FY2027 Plan | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest Table | $142.0M | +$3.9M | TO BE SET | TO BE SET (10 units) | — | TO BE SET | Jamal Whitaker |
| Ember & Oak | $96.0M | +$2.6M | TO BE SET (FY2026 trend: −6%) | — | TO BE SET (0–5 units) | TO BE SET | COO (interim) |
| Little Saffron | $30.0M | +$0.8M | TO BE SET | — | — | TO BE SET | Corinne Abara |
| Total | $268.0M | +$7.4M | TO BE SET | TO BE SET | TO BE SET | TO BE SET. Must land in $286.8M–$294.8M | Nora Lindgren |
The price column applies 3% uniformly across brands, before any change in traffic: $142.0M × 3% × 11/12 = $3.905M; $96.0M = $2.640M; $30.0M = $0.825M; total $7.37M. If price is set by brand (Decision 4), this column changes.
Revenue by channel
| Channel | FY2026F | FY2027 Plan | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dine-in | $193.0M | TO BE SET | Brand presidents |
| Off-premise | $56.0M | TO BE SET | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Catering | $19.0M | TO BE SET | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Total | $268.0M | TO BE SET (must equal the brand total) | Nora Lindgren |
Revenue bridge, FY2026F to FY2027 Plan
FY2026 forecast revenue $268.0M
+ Menu price, 3% from 1 Feb (11/12 × 3% × $268.0M), before +$7.4M calculated
any traffic response
± Comparable traffic: Harvest Table TO BE SET
± Comparable traffic: Ember & Oak TO BE SET (FY2026 −6% repeated = −$5.8M)
± Comparable traffic: Little Saffron TO BE SET
± Channel and menu mix TO BE SET
+ Carry-over of units opened in FY2026 TO BE SET (the FY2026 opening count is NOT PROVIDED)
+ 10 new Harvest Table units TO BE SET ($0.185M per unit-month at $2.22M/unit;
ceiling $22.2M if all 10 opened 1 Jan)
− Ember & Oak closures (if approved) TO BE SET (ceiling −$9.0M to −$15.0M if 3–5 units
at the $3.0M brand average closed 1 Jan;
the weakest units are likely lower)
FY2027 plan revenue TO BE SET guidance window $286.8M – $294.8M
Gap test: once price is counted, the non-price lines must net to
+$11.4M (low end) through +$19.4M (high end). That is +4.25% to +7.25% of the FY2026 base. There is no plug line: until those lines are filled in, the total stays TO BE SET.
Cost structure
| Line | FY2026F | % of sales | FY2027 Plan | Driver and source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hourly labor | $87.4M | 32.6% | ≤31.5% of sales | Board ceiling. Minimum wage +$1.10/hr in two states from 1 Jan (payroll provider bulletin) |
| Food, beverage, management labor, occupancy and other restaurant costs | $138.3M | 51.6% | TO BE SET | Breakdown NOT PROVIDED. Food inflation 3.5% (purchasing; signed supplier contracts) |
| Total restaurant operating costs | $225.7M | 84.2% | TO BE SET | |
| Restaurant-level margin | $42.3M | 15.8% | TO BE SET | |
| Below-RLM costs (G&A, pre-opening, other), implied | $18.7M | 7.0% | TO BE SET | Calculated as RLM dollars minus EBITDA. Breakdown NOT PROVIDED. Corporate headcount flat at 142 |
| EBITDA | $23.6M | 8.8% | TO BE SET |
Cost sensitivities (calculated):
- Food: 3.5% inflation costs $0.35M per $10M of food spend. Each point above 3.5% costs another $0.10M per $10M. Total food spend is NOT PROVIDED.
- Minimum wage:
$1.10M per million hourly labor hours worked in the two states, before payroll taxes and knock-on increases for staff already paid above the minimum. Hours affected are NOT PROVIDED.
- Each 10 bps of hourly labor is about $0.29M at midpoint revenue ($290.8M).
- Each $1M added to below-RLM costs is about 34 bps of EBITDA margin at midpoint revenue.
Restaurant-level margin bridge
FY2026 restaurant-level margin 15.8%
+ Price, gross (+$7.4M with costs held flat in $) +2.25 pts calculated; gross before offsets
− Food cost inflation, 3.5% on food spend TO BE SET (food spend NOT PROVIDED)
− Minimum wage, +$1.10/hr in two states TO BE SET (hours NOT PROVIDED)
− Other wage and benefit inflation TO BE SET
+ Kitchen-technology and scheduling productivity TO BE SET (CIO business case)
− New-unit ramp-up inefficiency (10 units) TO BE SET
± Ember & Oak closures / fix plan TO BE SET (unit P&Ls NOT PROVIDED)
± Fixed-cost leverage or deleverage from traffic TO BE SET
FY2027 restaurant-level margin TO BE SET
The +2.25 pt price line is the mechanical effect of $7.4M of extra revenue with no extra cost. It is not a forecast: the cost lines below it all offset it. For reference, the EBITDA range of 9.0–9.8% at midpoint revenue needs
RLM of 15.45%–16.25% if below-RLM costs stay at $18.7M. Pre-opening costs for 10 units would push that requirement up.
Hourly labor bridge (Priority 3)
FY2026 hourly labor 32.6% $87.4M
− Price leverage (labor $ flat, sales +$7.4M) −0.87 pts → 31.73% calculated
+ Minimum wage, two states TO BE SET
+ Merit / market wage increases TO BE SET
+ New-unit ramp-up (10 units) TO BE SET
− Kitchen display and automation TO BE SET (CIO)
− Scheduling and deployment TO BE SET (COO)
FY2027 hourly labor ≤31.5% board ceiling
Labor dollar envelope: at 31.5%, hourly labor may total $90.3M (at +7% revenue) to $92.9M (at +10%). That allows growth of +$3.0M to +$5.5M (+3.4% to +6.3%) over FY2026. That growth has to cover the crews for 10 new units, the minimum-wage increase and merit increases.
P&L summary
| Line | FY2026F | FY2027 Plan | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $268.0M | TO BE SET | $286.8M–$294.8M (+7–10%) |
| Restaurant operating costs | $225.7M (84.2%) | TO BE SET | Hourly labor ≤31.5% |
| Restaurant-level margin | $42.3M (15.8%) | TO BE SET | — |
| Below-RLM costs (implied) | $18.7M (7.0%) | TO BE SET | Corporate headcount flat |
| EBITDA | $23.6M (8.8%) | TO BE SET | 9.0–9.8% ($25.8M–$28.9M) |
| D&A, interest, tax, net income | NOT PROVIDED | NOT PROVIDED | — |
Cash flow
The full cash-flow statement can't be built yet: D&A, interest, tax, working capital, debt service, opening cash and closure costs are all NOT PROVIDED. The proxy below (EBITDA less capex) shows how tight the capital request is:
| Case | EBITDA | Capex | EBITDA − capex (before interest, tax, working capital and closure costs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 EBITDA, all requests funded | $23.6M | $25.4M | −$1.8M |
| Guidance floor (9.0% on +7%), all requests funded | $25.8M | $25.4M | +$0.4M |
| Guidance floor, capex at the $22M ceiling | $25.8M | $22.0M | +$3.8M |
| Guidance top (9.8% on +10%), capex at the $18M floor | $28.9M | $18.0M | +$10.9M |
Implication: funding every request leaves almost no cash cover before interest and tax, even if EBITDA lands inside guidance. Closures would add one-off cash costs (lease exits, severance), not yet sized. The funding source (cash on hand, revolver capacity) and any debt service are NOT PROVIDED and are needed before finance can sign off.
Working capital metrics: inventory days, payables days and the cash conversion cycle are NOT PROVIDED. TO BE SET by the CFO.
Risks and opportunities
| Risk | Revenue impact (calculated) | Probability | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ember & Oak traffic repeats −6% | −$5.8M | TO BE SET | Fix plan; brand-specific pricing; closure decision | COO (interim) |
| All 10 openings slip one quarter | −$5.5M (−$0.55M per unit-quarter) | TO BE SET | Dated schedule; leading-indicator tracker | Jamal Whitaker |
| The 4 slipped openings slip again by one quarter | −$2.2M | TO BE SET | Open these first (PROPOSED) | Jamal Whitaker |
| Price taken at 2% instead of 3% | −$2.5M (falls almost entirely to EBITDA) | TO BE SET | Test price by brand | CMO |
| Price delayed 3 months (to 1 May) | −$2.0M ($0.67M per month) | TO BE SET | Lock menus and POS prices in December | CMO |
| Hourly labor 10 bps over ceiling | −$0.29M EBITDA per 10 bps | TO BE SET | Weekly labor tracking; scheduling program | COO |
| Food inflation above 3.5% on uncontracted spend | −$0.10M per point per $10M of spend | TO BE SET | Share of spend under contract NOT PROVIDED | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Opportunity | Impact | Probability | Action | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closing loss-making Ember & Oak units improves EBITDA even though revenue falls | TO BE SET (unit P&Ls NOT PROVIDED) | TO BE SET | Unit-level review in Phase 2 | COO (interim) |
| Openings ahead of schedule | +$0.185M per unit-month | TO BE SET | Front-load the 4 slipped units | Jamal Whitaker |
| Off-premise and catering grow faster | TO BE SET | TO BE SET | Plan due in Phase 2 | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Kitchen technology installed early | Each 10 bps ≈ $0.29M | TO BE SET | Rollout schedule | Felix Amador |
Operational Plans by Function
All targets below are TO BE SET by the named owner in Phase 2 unless the board has already fixed them.
Harvest Table: Jamal Whitaker
- Mission: be the growth engine. Open on time and run new units to pro forma.
Objectives: units 64 → 74 (owner Jamal Whitaker); revenue $142.0M → TO BE SET; hourly labor TO BE SET (must support ≤31.5% overall); off-premise share TO BE SET.
- Initiatives: 10-unit opening program; FY2028 pipeline.
Resources: $14.5M capex. Pre-opening opex NOT PROVIDED. Development and construction staff (corporate, within 142) NOT PROVIDED.
- Risks: repeat slippage; new units ramping below the brand average.
Dependencies: construction and real estate (owner NOT PROVIDED); HR for hourly hiring; IT, so that new units open with kitchen display and the new POS rather than being retrofitted later.
Little Saffron: Corinne Abara
- Mission: run quick service profitably as a base business.
Objectives: revenue $30.0M → TO BE SET; hourly labor TO BE SET; off-premise share TO BE SET. Units stay at 22: no openings or closures were requested.
- Initiatives: no strategic initiative was submitted. Kitchen technology and POS/loyalty roll out here too.
- Risk: without its own priority, the brand gets little management attention.
Ember & Oak: COO (interim), President vacant
- Mission (FY2027): settle fix-or-exit; stabilize the units that stay.
Objectives: closure decision date (PROPOSED: board, Q1 2027 at the latest); traffic TO BE SET (FY2026 was −6%); unit-level margin ranking of all 32 units by the end of Phase 2 (PROPOSED); President appointed (date TO BE SET).
- Initiatives: unit portfolio review; fix plan; up to 6 remodels; President search.
- Resources: $5.4M remodel capex (conditional). Closure costs NOT PROVIDED.
Risks: the COO carrying a brand turnaround on top of company-wide operations; remodel capital stranded at units that later close; closure obligations to employees (HR and employment counsel review needed).
Off-Premise and Catering: Dana Kowalczyk
- Mission: grow the channels that need no extra seats.
Objectives: off-premise $56.0M → TO BE SET; catering $19.0M → TO BE SET; combined share 28.0% → TO BE SET once the target is defined.
- Initiatives: off-premise and catering growth plan; requirements and launch for POS and loyalty.
Dependencies: POS/loyalty platform (owner NOT PROVIDED); kitchen display, for throughput at peak off-premise times.
Technology: Felix Amador, CIO
- Mission: deliver kitchen technology that measurably lowers hourly labor.
- Objectives: installed-restaurant count by quarter TO BE SET; labor-savings business case TO BE SET.
Initiatives: kitchen display and automation rollout ($3.1M). POS and loyalty ($2.4M) if the CIO is confirmed as owner.
- Risk: two concurrent rollouts in the same restaurants with flat corporate headcount.
Marketing and pricing: CMO (name NOT PROVIDED)
Objective: 3% price from 1 February, a CMO proposal not yet approved. The pricing decision is by brand (Decision 4).
- Metrics (PROPOSED): price realization; traffic response by brand after 1 February.
Purchasing: OWNER NOT PROVIDED
- Objective: hold food inflation at 3.5% (signed contracts). The share of spend under contract is NOT PROVIDED.
Finance: Nora Lindgren, CFO
Objectives: AOP approved on 10 December; monthly reporting against plan from January; cash-flow plan completed (inputs NOT PROVIDED).
People / HR: OWNER NOT PROVIDED
Objectives: corporate headcount at 142; Ember & Oak President hired; crews staffed for 10 openings; minimum-wage compliance from 1 January; closure-related workforce actions reviewed by counsel.
Cross-functional fit tests
| Test | Status |
|---|---|
| Revenue vs. opening capacity | At risk. New-unit revenue depends on 10 dated openings, and FY2026 slipped 4. The size of the development team is NOT PROVIDED |
| Technology roadmap vs. delivery resources | At risk. Two restaurant-system rollouts at once with flat corporate headcount |
| Kitchen capacity vs. off-premise demand | Unknown. Off-premise growth target TO BE SET; kitchen display is the main lever on throughput |
| Hiring vs. HR capacity | Unknown. Crew hiring for 10 units and possible closure transitions in the same year, with no HR leader named |
Key Initiatives
The plan holds
11 strategic initiatives, inside the 10–15 discipline. Quarterly milestones are PROPOSED for owner confirmation; counts and dates are TO BE SET by the owner.
| # | Initiative | Priority | Owner | Investment | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvest Table 10-unit opening program (includes the 4 slipped) | P1 | Jamal Whitaker | $14.5M capex; pre-opening NOT PROVIDED | Openings: TO BE SET (PROPOSED: open the 4 slipped units first) | Openings: TO BE SET | Openings: TO BE SET | All 10 open (cumulative = 10) |
| 2 | FY2028 Harvest Table pipeline | P1 | Jamal Whitaker | NOT PROVIDED | Site criteria confirmed | Sites identified | Leases signed (count TO BE SET) | FY2028 schedule to board |
| 3 | Off-premise and catering growth plan | P2 | Dana Kowalczyk | Opex TO BE SET | Target definition settled; plan approved | Launch by brand | Scale | Measure against 2028 path |
| 4 | POS and loyalty platform | P2 | OWNER NOT PROVIDED | $2.4M capex | Vendor and design | Pilot | Rollout | Loyalty live; measure |
| 5 | Kitchen display and automation rollout | P3 | Felix Amador | $3.1M capex | Pilot restaurants | Rollout wave 1 | Rollout wave 2 | Complete; savings measured |
| 6 | Labor scheduling and productivity to ≤31.5% | P3 | COO (name NOT PROVIDED) | Opex TO BE SET | Minimum-wage rates live 1 Jan; schedules re-based | Track weekly | Track weekly | ≤31.5% full year |
| 7 | Minimum-wage implementation (two states) | P3 | OWNER NOT PROVIDED | Cost TO BE SET (hours NOT PROVIDED) | Live 1 Jan; offsets in place | — | — | — |
| 8 | Ember & Oak unit portfolio review and closure decision | P4 | COO (interim) | Closure costs NOT PROVIDED | Board decision (if not taken 10 Dec) | Carry out decision (with counsel) | Complete | Post-closure review |
| 9 | Ember & Oak fix plan for retained units | P4 | COO (interim), then the Ember & Oak President | Opex TO BE SET | Plan approved | Execute | Execute | Traffic against target |
| 10 | Ember & Oak remodels (up to 6, retained units only) | P4 | COO (interim) | $5.4M capex requested; see Capital Plan | Hold until decision | Release approved remodels | Construction | Reopen; measure uplift |
| 11 | Ember & Oak President hire | P4 | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (CEO?) | Compensation NOT PROVIDED | Search | Appoint (date TO BE SET) | Onboard; own the fix plan | — |
Base-business plan drivers (not strategic initiatives, so no priority mapping):
| Driver | Owner | Effective | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Menu price +3% (CMO proposal; not yet approved) | CMO (name NOT PROVIDED) | 1 February 2027 | +$7.4M revenue (11 months) |
| Food cost contracts at +3.5% | OWNER NOT PROVIDED | Per contract (dates NOT PROVIDED) | $0.35M per $10M of food spend |
Capital Plan
Summary by category
| Category | Budget (requested) | Projects | Key Investments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | $14.5M | 1 | 10 Harvest Table units at $1.45M (P1) |
| Efficiency | $3.1M | 1 | Kitchen display and automation (P3) |
| Strategic: platform | $2.4M | 1 | POS and loyalty (P2) |
| Strategic: turnaround (conditional) | $5.4M | 6 | Ember & Oak remodels at $0.9M (P4) |
| Maintenance | NOT PROVIDED | — | ⚠ No maintenance capex requested for 118 existing units |
| Total requested | $25.4M | Board range $18–22M: $3.4M over the ceiling |
Scoring (PROPOSED; executives to confirm)
| Request | Strategic alignment | Financial return | Risk | Resource availability | Proposed rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest Table units, $14.5M | High: P1, and 4 units already slipped | Business case NOT PROVIDED. Brand revenue per unit ($2.22M) is 1.53× the build cost | Medium: slippage history | Development team size NOT PROVIDED | 1 |
| Kitchen display and automation, $3.1M | High: P3, plus the board labor ceiling | Simple payback: 10.7 yrs at 10 bps sustained saving; 4.6 yrs at 23 bps; 3.6 yrs at 30 bps; 2.1 yrs at 50 bps (≈$0.29M per 10 bps) | Medium: concurrent rollout | CIO capacity shared with POS | 2 |
| POS and loyalty, $2.4M | Medium–High: enables P2 | Business case NOT PROVIDED | Medium: system change in every restaurant | Owner NOT PROVIDED | 3 |
| Ember & Oak remodels, $5.4M | Medium: P4 "fix", but the "exit" side is undecided | Each remodel costs 30% of brand revenue per unit; uplift NOT PROVIDED | High: stranded capital if the unit later closes | COO is interim | 4 (conditional) |
Options to fit guidance (calculated)
| Option | FY2027 capex | Headroom to $22M | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Fund all requests | $25.4M | −$3.4M | Outside guidance; thin cash cover |
| B. Fund 2 remodels; defer 4 to FY2028 | $21.8M | +$0.2M | Two remodel sites chosen before the closure decision |
| C. Defer all 6 remodels to FY2028 | $20.0M | +$2.0M | Weakens the "fix" side of Priority 4 |
| D. Defer POS and loyalty to FY2028; defer 2 remodels | $21.2M | +$0.8M | Delays the Priority 2 enabler |
| E. Fund 8 Harvest Table units (2 to FY2028), all else | $22.5M | −$0.5M | Still over; net new drops to 8 before any closures |
| C+ (PROPOSED): C, plus up to $1.8M for 2 remodels released only after the closure decision and only at retained units | $20.0M firm, max $21.8M | +$0.2M at maximum | Keeps P1–P3 whole; sequences P4 correctly. Maintenance capex, once sized, competes for the same headroom |
Recommendation for CFO consideration (PROPOSED, not decided): C+. It funds the three priorities that are free of decision risk in full. It avoids putting $0.9M into a unit that may close. It stays inside the board range. The capital allocation is the CFO's and the board's call.
Business-case requirements before the board pre-read (3 Dec)
| Investment | Must show | Currently |
|---|---|---|
| Harvest Table units | New-unit AUV, RLM, cash-on-cash return, payback; dated schedule | NOT PROVIDED |
| Kitchen display and automation | Labor bps saved per restaurant, rollout schedule, payback | NOT PROVIDED |
| POS and loyalty | Off-premise and loyalty revenue uplift; retirement cost of the current platform | NOT PROVIDED |
| Ember & Oak remodels | Uplift at retained units; site list after the decision | NOT PROVIDED |
| Ember & Oak closures (non-capex) | Unit P&Ls, lease exit costs, one-off cash, impairment | NOT PROVIDED |
People Plan
Corporate headcount bridge
| Count | |
|---|---|
| Start of FY2027 | 142 |
| + New roles | TO BE SET |
| + Backfills | TO BE SET |
| − Attrition | TO BE SET |
| − Restructuring / roles eliminated | TO BE SET |
| End of FY2027 (board guidance: flat) | 142 |
Constraint: to stay flat, every new role must be offset by a role that is eliminated or left unfilled. Whether the vacant Ember & Oak President role is already counted inside 142 is
NOT PROVIDED.
Where the work grows, and where it has to come from
| Investment area (more work in FY2027) | Driver | Funding |
|---|---|---|
| New-unit development and opening support | 10 openings | Reallocation (TO BE SET) |
| Kitchen technology and POS deployment | Two rollouts | Reallocation, or vendor or implementation partner (cost TO BE SET) |
| Off-premise and catering | Priority 2 | Reallocation (TO BE SET) |
| Ember & Oak leadership | President vacancy | Backfill |
Efficiency areas (where corporate roles can be released): TO BE SET by executives.
Restaurant (hourly) workforce
Hourly headcount isn't covered by the corporate headcount guidance. It's governed by the
≤31.5% labor ceiling, which gives a $90.3M–$92.9M envelope. Hourly headcount, the crew size per new unit and the staff at closure candidates are NOT PROVIDED.
Critical hires
| Role | Priority | Timing | Status | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| President, Ember & Oak | P4. Critical: owns the fix plan | TO BE SET (PROPOSED: appointed by end of Q2) | Vacant since August 2026 | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| General managers and crews for 10 Harvest Table units | P1 | Ahead of each opening | Counts NOT PROVIDED | Jamal Whitaker |
Organization changes
| Change | Timing | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Appoint Ember & Oak President; COO returns to company-wide role | TO BE SET | Removes the single-point-of-failure on Priority 4 |
| Confirm a named owner for POS/loyalty, purchasing and HR | Phase 1 (by 9 Oct) | Required for one owner per metric |
| Ember & Oak closures (if approved) | After the board decision | Requires HR and employment-counsel review before dates are set, including notice obligations under federal and state plant-closing laws and any lease or franchise-law constraints |
Compensation budget
| Component | FY2026 | FY2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Merit pool | NOT PROVIDED | TO BE SET |
| Promotion budget | NOT PROVIDED | TO BE SET |
| Bonus pool | NOT PROVIDED | TO BE SET (PROPOSED: tie to EBITDA and labor % against plan) |
| Equity | NOT PROVIDED | TO BE SET |
| Benefits | NOT PROVIDED | TO BE SET |
| Minimum wage (hourly, two states) | — | +$1.10/hr from 1 Jan. Cost = $1.10M per million hours affected (hours NOT PROVIDED) |
People metrics (PROPOSED metrics; baselines NOT PROVIDED; targets TO BE SET)
Corporate headcount (≤142 at every quarter-end) · hourly turnover by brand · general-manager retention · days to staff a new unit before opening · time to fill critical roles.
Performance Framework
Quarterly scorecard
Quarterly figures are
TO BE SET: FP&A will phase them using FY2026 monthly seasonality, which was NOT PROVIDED. Each row's quarters must add up to its full-year value, and the scorecard check enforces that before the pre-read goes out.
Financial
| Metric | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue: total | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS ($286.8M–$294.8M window) | Nora Lindgren |
| Revenue: Harvest Table | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | Jamal Whitaker |
| Revenue: Ember & Oak | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | COO (interim) |
| Revenue: Little Saffron | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | Corinne Abara |
| Restaurant-level margin % | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | COO |
| EBITDA | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS ($25.8M–$28.9M window) | Nora Lindgren |
| Capex (cumulative against approved) | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | ≤ approved (guidance $18–22M) | Nora Lindgren |
Operational
| Metric | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hourly labor % | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | ≤31.5% | COO |
| Price realization (3% from 1 Feb) | 2 of 3 months live | Full | Full | Full | 11 months | CMO |
| Ember & Oak traffic vs. prior year | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | COO (interim) |
| Off-premise + catering share | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS (pending definition) | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Corporate headcount (quarter-end) | ≤142 | ≤142 | ≤142 | ≤142 | 142 | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
Strategic
| Metric | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Full Year | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest Table openings (in quarter) | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | 10 | Jamal Whitaker |
| Restaurants with kitchen display (cumulative) | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | Felix Amador |
| POS/loyalty restaurants live (cumulative) | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | TBS | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Ember & Oak closure decision | Decided (if not on 10 Dec) | Carried out | — | — | Complete | COO (interim) |
| Ember & Oak President in seat | — | TBS | — | — | Yes | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
Variance thresholds (all PROPOSED; CFO to set)
| Metric | Yellow | Red | Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, year to date vs. plan | −2% (≈$5.8M full-year equivalent at midpoint) | −4% (≈$11.6M) | Yellow: owner's recovery plan within 10 business days. Red: CFO review; Tier 2 menu |
| EBITDA, year to date vs. plan | −5% | −10% | Red: CEO review; board notified |
| Hourly labor % vs. plan | +20 bps | +50 bps | Brand-level scheduling review |
| Opening date vs. schedule | 4 weeks late | 8 weeks late | Recovery plan; reforecast revenue |
| Project capex vs. approved | +5% | +10% | CFO approval needed to proceed |
| Ember & Oak traffic vs. plan | −1 pt | −3 pts | Escalate the fix plan; revisit the closure scope |
Review cadence and variance response
Monthly operating review (CFO) → quarterly business review (brand presidents and functional owners) → quarterly board report → July reforecast. For any yellow or red:
identify at the monthly close →
root cause within 5 business days →
recovery plan within 10 business days →
execute →
track at the next review. All PROPOSED.
Contingency Scenarios
Probabilities are
TO BE SET: none were provided, and this draft does not assign any. Revenue deltas are calculated from supplied figures. EBITDA deltas need FP&A's decremental-margin assumptions, except where noted.
| Scenario | Trigger (PROPOSED) | Assumptions | Probability | Revenue delta vs. plan | EBITDA delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | — | Plan as approved | TO BE SET | — | — |
| Upside | Openings ahead of schedule; off-premise share above plan; closures remove loss-making units | Per opportunity table | TO BE SET | +$0.185M per unit-month early; others TO BE SET | TO BE SET |
| Downside 1: Ember & Oak decline persists | Ember & Oak traffic ≤ −6% YoY for 2 consecutive months | FY2026 trend repeats | TO BE SET | −$5.8M | TO BE SET |
| Downside 2: openings slip | Any construction start more than 4 weeks late | All 10 units slip one quarter | TO BE SET | −$5.5M (−$2.2M if only the 4 slipped units slip) | TO BE SET; pre-opening cost may also move |
| Downside 3: price resistance | Traffic after 1 Feb below plan by more than the yellow threshold | 2% realized instead of 3% | TO BE SET | −$2.5M | Up to −$2.5M (price carries almost no variable cost; FP&A to confirm) |
| Downside 4: labor overrun | Labor % above plan by more than +20 bps for 2 months | Kitchen technology late; minimum wage not offset | TO BE SET | — | −$0.29M per 10 bps |
| Stress: D1 + D2 + D3 together | Two or more downside triggers at once | All three revenue downsides | TO BE SET | −$13.8M (−4.7% of midpoint) | TO BE SET |
Stress context: applied to the guidance midpoint ($290.8M), the stress case would leave revenue at about $277.0M. That is +3.4% on FY2026,
below the 7% floor. The plan's response menu needs to be ready before Q1.
Tiered action menu (PROPOSED; savings TO BE SET unless calculated)
| Tier | Trigger | Actions | Savings | Timing | Decides |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Early warning | Any yellow threshold | Freeze discretionary G&A; pause non-critical corporate backfills; tighten labor scheduling; reallocate marketing to the brands that are working | TO BE SET | Immediate to 2 weeks | CFO + COO |
| 2. Course correction | Any red threshold, or Downside 1–4 triggered | Defer unstarted Ember & Oak remodels ($0.9M capex each); defer POS/loyalty to FY2028 ($2.4M capex); re-cut price by brand; slow Harvest Table units not yet under construction ($1.45M capex each, which also reduces FY2027 revenue) | Capex as stated; opex TO BE SET | 2–6 weeks | CEO (name NOT PROVIDED); board notified |
| 3. Significant action | Stress case, or EBITDA tracking below the 9.0% floor after Tier 2 | Widen Ember & Oak exits beyond the approved set; cut capex to maintenance plus committed projects; restructure corporate cost (HR and employment-counsel review required before any workforce action) | TO BE SET | 1–3 months | Board approval |
Early-warning dashboard (PROPOSED)
| Indicator | Frequency | Green | Yellow | Red | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ember & Oak traffic YoY | Weekly | At or above plan | −1 pt vs. plan | −3 pts vs. plan | COO (interim) |
| Harvest Table opening tracker (lease, permit, construction start, GM hired) | Weekly | On schedule | 4 weeks late | 8 weeks late | Jamal Whitaker |
| Check average vs. the 3% price | Weekly from 1 Feb | ≥ plan | Below plan | 2% or less | CMO |
| Hourly labor % by brand | Weekly | ≤ plan | +20 bps | +50 bps | COO |
| Food cost vs. contract | Monthly | At contract | +0.5 pt (PROPOSED) | +1 pt (PROPOSED) | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Off-premise + catering share | Monthly | ≥ plan | Below plan | TBS | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Capex committed vs. approved | Monthly | ≤ approved | +5% | +10% | Nora Lindgren |
Assumptions Register
| Assumption | Value | Basis | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food cost inflation | 3.5% | Purchasing, from signed supplier contracts | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (purchasing) |
| Menu price increase | 3% from 1 Feb 2027 (worth 2.75% for the year) | CMO proposal (not yet approved) | CMO (name NOT PROVIDED) |
| Minimum wage | +$1.10/hr in two states from 1 Jan 2027 | Payroll provider bulletin | OWNER NOT PROVIDED (HR/payroll) |
| FY2026 baseline | $268.0M revenue; 15.8% RLM; $23.6M EBITDA; 32.6% hourly labor | FY2026 forecast. Q4 actuals will rebase it | Nora Lindgren |
| Price applies uniformly across brands | 3% each | Inferred from the CMO proposal; confirm | CMO |
| Comparable traffic by brand | NOT PROVIDED | — | Brand presidents |
| Price elasticity (traffic response) | NOT PROVIDED | — | CMO |
| Opening dates for 10 Harvest Table units | NOT PROVIDED | — | Jamal Whitaker |
| New-unit sales, ramp-up and margin | NOT PROVIDED | — | Jamal Whitaker |
| Ember & Oak unit P&Ls; closure candidates and costs | NOT PROVIDED | — | COO (interim) |
| Food spend ($) and share under contract | NOT PROVIDED | — | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Hourly hours in the two minimum-wage states | NOT PROVIDED | — | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Merit and wage inflation | NOT PROVIDED | — | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Kitchen-technology labor savings and rollout schedule | NOT PROVIDED | — | Felix Amador |
| POS/loyalty benefits | NOT PROVIDED | — | OWNER NOT PROVIDED |
| Off-premise and catering growth | NOT PROVIDED | — | Dana Kowalczyk |
| Occupancy and rent inflation | NOT PROVIDED | — | Nora Lindgren |
| Below-RLM costs: G&A and pre-opening | NOT PROVIDED (implied total $18.7M) | — | Nora Lindgren |
| D&A, interest, tax rate, debt service, working capital, opening cash | NOT PROVIDED | — | Nora Lindgren |
| Maintenance capex | NOT PROVIDED | — | Nora Lindgren |
| Monthly seasonality (for quarterly phasing) | NOT PROVIDED | — | Nora Lindgren |
| Scenario probabilities and variance thresholds | NOT PROVIDED (thresholds PROPOSED above) | — | Nora Lindgren |
Open Questions
Needed by the end of Phase 1 (Fri 9 Oct), because they block structure:
1.
Off-premise target definition. Off-premise plus catering is already 28.0% of sales against a 25%-by-2028 target. Is the target off-premise only (20.9% today), brand-specific, or does it need rebasing? (Dana Kowalczyk / CFO)
2.
Net-new-unit measure. Do Ember & Oak closures count against the 8–10 net-new guidance? With 10 openings, any closure above 2 units breaks the floor. (CFO, with the board chair)
3.
Named owners for POS/loyalty, purchasing and food cost, the people plan and HR, new-unit construction, and the hourly-labor metric. Also the names of the COO, CMO and CEO.
4. Capex envelope and maintenance capex. No maintenance request was submitted for 118 restaurants. (CFO)
5. Whether the vacant Ember & Oak President role sits inside the 142 corporate headcount.
Needed by the end of Phase 2 (Fri 30 Oct), because they block the numbers:
6. Dated opening schedule for the 10 Harvest Table units, plus new-unit sales and margin assumptions (Jamal Whitaker).
7. Comparable traffic assumptions by brand (brand presidents).
8. Ember & Oak unit-level P&Ls for all 32 units; closure candidates; lease-exit and one-off costs (COO).
9. Pricing by brand, and the elasticity assumption, especially for Ember & Oak (CMO).
10. Hourly labor hours in the two minimum-wage states (payroll/HR).
11. Food spend in dollars and the share under contract (purchasing).
12. Kitchen-technology business case: bps saved, schedule and sequencing against POS (Felix Amador).
13. POS/loyalty business case and owner.
14. Off-premise and catering growth plan (Dana Kowalczyk).
15. Below-RLM budget: G&A, pre-opening, merit, bonus and benefits (CFO).
16. Cash-flow inputs: D&A, interest, tax, debt service, working capital, opening cash, funding source for capex (CFO).
17. FY2026 monthly seasonality for quarterly phasing (FP&A).
Needed by the end of Phase 4 (Wed 25 Nov), because they block approval:
18. Ember & Oak closure recommendation: whether to close, how many (3–5) and when. Whether the decision goes to the 10 December board or to Q1 2027.
19. Capital option: A–E or C+ (CFO).
20. Scenario probabilities and final variance thresholds (CFO).
21. Strategic role of Little Saffron: confirm it runs as a base business with no priority of its own.
Reviews required before anything leaves the building: finance sign-off on all financials (CFO); HR and employment-counsel review of any closure or workforce action; the user's review of the full document before the board pre-read on 3 December.
It also wrote aop_fy2027_calcs.py, aop_fy2027_calcs_output.txt (not shown here).
annual-operating-plan-builder.csv
CSV · data export
Example file from a real run - the skill writes it into your workspace.
Connects securely to your tools. The creator never sees your data.
What you get
About this skill
For CFOs, FP&A leads, COOs, and business-unit heads who must turn an agreed strategy into next year's commitments. Give it your strategic priorities, prior-year plan versus actual, board guidance ranges, and capital and headcount requests, and it drafts the plan: strategy-to-objective translation, revenue and margin bridges, a P&L and cash flow summary, functional plans with cross-functional checks, a prioritized capital plan, a people plan, a quarterly scorecard with variance thresholds, and base, upside, downside, and stress scenarios with a tiered action menu. Every figure is either yours or calculated from yours with the working shown. Totals and bridges are reconciled, metrics outside guidance are flagged, and missing assumptions or owners are labelled and returned as questions. Your executives set the targets, and finance signs off before the plan reaches the board.
What's in the zip
SKILL.md: the skill.references/recipe.md: the full step-by-step recipe (about 9,600 words) with templates and worked examples.evals/: three test cases you can run to check its behavior.LICENSE.txt: single-purchaser license; use it in your own work, including for clients.
Part of the Executive & Board Pack (10 skills). The demo below is a real run on a fictional company: Claude's reply, then the full document it wrote.
How to install
Works the same in every agent - Claude, Cursor, Codex, Copilot and 20+ more.
- 1
Download the ZIP
Free skills download straight away. Paid skills unlock right after purchase.
- 2
Unzip into your skills folder
Every agent reads skills from one folder on your machine. Drop the unzipped folder in there.
- 3
Ask your agent to use it
Restart the agent if it was already running. It picks the skill up automatically - no config needed.
Skills folder by agent
Click the path to copy it. Create the folder if it does not exist yet.
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